Another twist in the unfolding epidemiological nightmare for governments around the world is not just their concern that the swine flu virus could mutate to a more virulent form, but the very real possibility that a vaccine may not be available for the northern hemisphere’s flu season. While those in the southern hemisphere are feeling the brunt of the swine flu those in the northern hemisphere are pinning their hopes on a vaccine due for distribution in September. There’s the nub, 70% of the worlds vaccines are made in Europe, the US having only a limited capacity to produce vaccine they are heavily dependent on European supplies and rely on their contractual agreements with pharmaceutical companies to deliver.
Pandemic vaccine is a valuable and a scarce resource; history has shown during the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 countries that produced vaccines never exported until their own population had adequately been supplied; As for contractual obligations, under international law private agreements are voided during extraordinary circumstances and a pandemic fits those criteria, leaving many countries not just without a vaccine but also little legal recourse. So it would appear that any government that assert to have a well defined schedule for the implementation of a vaccine is very poorly informed.